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⬆1. 7. 7 Manipulationen III

1.7.7 Manipulationen III
en Manipulations Part III
fr Manipulations, partie III

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de Teil II en Part II fr Partie II

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1 IPCC-Quellen / IPCC Sources

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a) Müll im IPCC-Bericht 2007 - unqualifizierte Zitate
en Where does Greenpeace stop and the IPCC begin? - Sometimes it's difficult to tell.

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Donna Laframboise
2010-01-28 en Greenpeace and the Nobel-Winning Climate Report

Considered the climate Bible by governments around the world, the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report is meant to be a scientific analysis of the most authoritative research.

Instead, it references literature generated by Greenpeace - an organization known more for headline-grabbing publicity stunts than sober-minded analysis.

The idea that 2,500 "scientific expert reviewers" provided feedback about the report during its pre-publication phase sounds awesome.

But many of those people aren't scientists at all. They're professional activists in the employ of environmental organizations.

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b) 1.2 en The IPCC: 5,600 small white lies
fr Sur 18.531 références 5.587 sources citées par le GIEC ne sont pas scientifiques

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en

Rajendra Pachauri states:

IPCC studies only peer-review science. Let someone publish the data in a decent credible publication. I am sure IPCC would then accept it, otherwise we can just throw it into the dustbin.

... volunteers who have conscientiously tested the IPCC by going through 18,500 references.

And the final total?

Fully 5,600, or 30% of their references are not peer reviewed.

fr

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c) en Climate Model Deficiencies in IPCC AR4 PSB

Climate Model Deficiencies in IPCC AR4 PSB
Chapter Section Page Quotation
6 6.5.1.3 462 "Current spatial coverage, temporal resolution and age control of available Holocene proxy data limit the ability to determine if there were multi-decadal periods of global warmth comparable to he last half of the 20th century."
6 6.7 483 "Knowledge of climate variability over the last 1 to 2 kyr in the SH and tropics is severely limited by the lack of paleoclimatic records. In the NH, the situation is better, but there are important limitations due to a lack of tropical records and ocean records. Differing amplitudes and variability observed in available millennial-length NH temperature reconstructions, and the extent to which these differences relate to choice of proxy data and statistical calibration methods, need to be reconciled. Similarly, the understanding of how climatic extremes (i.e., in temperature and hydro-climatic variables) varied in the past is incomplete. Lastly, this assessment would be improved with extensive networks of proxy data that run up to the present day. This would help measure how the proxies responded to the rapid global warming observed in the last 20 years, and it would also improve the ability to investigate the extent to which other, non-temperature, environmental changes may have biased the climate response of proxies in recent decades."
8 Executive Summary 591 "The possibility that metrics based on observations might be used to constrain model projections of climate change has been explored for the first time, through the analysis of ensembles of model simulations. Nevertheless, a proven set of model metrics that might be used to narrow the range of plausible climate projections has yet to be developed."
8 Executive Summary 593 “ Recent studies reaffirm that the spread of climate sensitivity estimates among models arises primarily from inter-model differences in cloud feedbacks. The shortwave impact of changes in boundary-layer clouds, and to a lesser extent mid-level clouds, constitutes the largest contributor to inter-model differences in global cloud feedbacks. The relatively poor simulation of these clouds in the present climate is a reason for some concern. The response to global warming of deep convective clouds is also a substantial source of uncertainty in projections since current models predict different responses of these clouds. Observationally based evaluation of cloud feedbacks indicates that climate models exhibit different strengths and weaknesses, and it is not yet possible to determine which estimates of the climate change cloud feedbacks are the most reliable.”
8 8.1.2.2 594 “What does the accuracy of a climate model’s simulation of past or contemporary climate say about the accuracy of its projections of climate change” This question is just beginning to be addressed, exploiting the newly available ensembles of models.”
8 8.1.2.2 595 “The above studies show promise that quantitative metrics for the likelihood of model projections may be developed, but because the development of robust metrics is still at an early stage, the model evaluations presented in this chapter are based primarily on experience and physical reasoning, as has been the norm in the past.”
8 8.3 608 “Consequently, for models to predict future climatic conditions reliably, they must simulate the current climatic state with some as yet unknown degree of fidelity.”
8 8.6.3.2.3 638 “Although the errors in the simulation of the different cloud types may eventually compensate and lead to a prediction of the mean CRF in agreement with observations (see Section 8.3), they cast doubts on the reliability of the model cloud feedbacks.”
8 8.6.3.2.3 638 “Modelling assumptions controlling the cloud water phase (liquid, ice or mixed) are known to be critical for the prediction of climate sensitivity. However, the evaluation of these assumptions is just beginning (Doutraix-Boucher and Quaas, 2004; Naud et al., 2006).
8 8.6.4 640 “A number of diagnostic tests have been proposed since the TAR (see Section 8.6.3), but few of them have been applied to a majority of the models currently in use. Moreover, it is not yet clear which tests are critical for constraining future projections. Consequently, a set of model metrics that might be used to narrow the range of plausible climate change feedbacks and climate sensitivity has yet to be developed.”
9 Executive Summary 665 “Difficulties remain in attributing temperature changes on smaller than continental scales and over time scales of less than 50 years. Attribution at these scales, with limited exceptions, has not yet been established.”
10 10.1 754 “Since the ensemble is strictly an ‘ensemble of opportunity’, without sampling protocol, the spread of models does not necessarily span the full possible range of uncertainty, and a statistical interpretation of the model spread is therefore problematic.”
10 10.5.4.2 805 “The AOGCMs featured in Section 10.5.2 are built by selecting components from a pool of alternative parameterizations, each based on a given set of physical assumptions and including a number of uncertain parameters.”

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2 Meeresspiegel / Sea levels

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de Was ist dran am globalen Anstieg des Meeresspiegels?

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de MeeresspiegelGate
en Sea Level Gate

 

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en Oceangate: sea levels proven to have fallen for past six years

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3 Gletscher / Glaciers

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a) Gletscher wachsen
en Glaciers are growing
fr Des glaciers grandissent

Funny how each time we read about another growing glacier, it's always "one of the only few" that are growing.

More than 90% of the worlds glaciers are growing, and still, each one is "one of the only few."


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Die kalte Sonne Themen Gebirgsgletscher
ScienceSkeptical de Schnee und Eis
Der Wasserplanet de Pole, Gletscher, Meeresspiegel
NoTricksZone Glaciers

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1. Himalayan glaciers are growing, not shrinking

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Things are not as they seemed to be in the IPCC report.

Not only are the Himalayan glaciers not shrinking, they're growing.

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2016

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2013

Die Himalaya-Gletscher-Lüge von "Klimapapst" Schellnhuber am 30.10.2009

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2012

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2009

de Aus der Panik-Küche en From the panic laboratory fr De la marmite des alarmistes

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2. Alaska's Hubbard Glacier. Growing. A lot.

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Alaska's Hubbard Glacier is advancing moving toward Gilbert Point near Yakutat at an average of seven feet per day.

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3. Norwegian glaciers. Growing again.

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After years of decline, glaciers in Norway are again growing.

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4. Glaciers growing on Canada's tallest mountain

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Canada's tallest mountain, the Yukon's towering Mount Logan, may have experienced a growth spurt.

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5. North to Alaska and more growing glaciers

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Alaska's glaciers have been in retreat for nearly 200 years.
But now they're advancing again.

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6. Glaciers are growing in California. California?

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You might be surprised to learn that the Golden State has glaciers.
And the Associated Press says they're growing

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7. A glacier is growing on Washington's Mt. St. Helens.

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Mount Saint Helens has glaciers? But it's an active volcano.
But, but, but...

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St. Helens ice curver
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St. Helens Glacier Cave
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In the winter and early spring, snow tumbles down avalanche chutes on the crater walls.

Notes cave entrance in front of picture.

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8. Glaciers are growing in France and Switzerland, too

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Another continent has reported in. According to an article in the Journal of Geophysical Research, glaciers are growing in France and Switzerland, to

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Mont Blanc Dome Glacier
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Mont Blanc Glacier
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9. New Zealand's largest glaciers are growing

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Growing may not be a strong enough word. They're surging.

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10. Russia's glaciers are growing, too

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The Russians don't believe the IPCC forecasts, but they do believe their own eyes.

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11. Argentina's Perito Moreno glacier is, you guessed it, growing

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Is there a continent where glaciers aren't growing? If so, South America isn't one of them. Consider Argentina's Perito Moreno glacier.

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12. Iceland's Breidamerkurjokull glacier. Yup, it's growing, too.

The Daily Mail UK ran a story on July 31, 2009 about the horrors of global warming. It was accompanied, for some inexplicable reason, by contradictory photos that showed the remarkable growth of Iceland's Breidamerkurjokull glacier.

Their headline screamed, "How global warming is changing the face of the northern hemisphere."

The photos and caption told a story that was, you'll pardon the expression, the polar opposite of what the article described.

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Chilling reminder
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Chilling reminder: An aerial view shows huge ice towers and crevasses on the glacier.

"The drastic alterations have been blamed on greenhouses gases."

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13. Glaciers Growing In Northern Greenland

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4 Arktis / Arctic / Arctique

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a) 2010/2011: Das arktische Meereis hat zugenommen
en 2010/2011: Arctic Ice Volume Has Increased

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2010-12: Dickes arktisches Meereis bedeckt jetzt eine Fläche, die doppelt so groß ist wie vor zwei Jahren
en 2010-12: Area Of Thick Arctic Ice Has Doubled In The Last Two Years

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Arktis Doppelt
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2010-05: Das arktische Meereis hat in zwei Jahren um 24% zugenommen
en 2010-05: Arctic Ice Volume Has Increased 25% Since May, 2008

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Arctic ice area distribution
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The blue line represents 2008, and the most abundant ice that year was less than 1.5 metres thick.

That thin ice was famously described by NSIDC as "rotten ice." In 2009 (red)

the most common ice had increased to more than 2.0 metres, and by 2010 (orange) the most common ice had increased to in excess of 2.75 metres thick.

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Untersuchung des arktischen Eises widerlegt Schmelz-Szenarien
en Scan of Arctic ice dispels melting gloom: Researcher

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b) Wird es in Grönland wärmer? Nein - kälter!

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Grönlandtemperaturen
en Greenland Temperatures

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from the Greenland Glacier Ice Core
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Image from Internet Archive's Wayback Machine

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Wird es in Grönland wärmer ?   Nein - kälter !

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Eine 4000-jährige Geschichte über Grönlands Oberflächentemperatur
en A 4000-Year History of Greenland Surface Temperature

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c) 4.3 Subtropische Meeresströmungen lässt Grönlands Gletscher schmelzen
en Greenland glaciers - melt due to sea current change, not air temperature
fr Courants subtropiques font fondre les glaciers au Groenland

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Greenland glaciers - melt due to sea current change, not air temperature Arktis Stroemung
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d) 4.4 en Is it possible that the IPCC is trying to rewrite the history books?

The New York Times 1969

de Aus der Panik-Küche en From the panic laboratory fr De la marmite des alarmistes

The New York Times 2000

Dr. James J. McCarthy, IPCC

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5 Antarktis / Antarctic / Antrctique

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a) Ein weiterer Fehler des IPCC: Antarktis Eis um 50 % unterschätzt
en Another IPCC Error: Antarctic Sea Ice Increase Underestimated by 50%
fr Une autre erreur du GIEC: La glace de l'antarctique a été sous-estimée de 50%

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Antarctic Sea Ice Extent
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b) Weitere Falschdarstellung im IPCC-Bericht: Ausdehnung des Meereises rund um die Antarktis
en Yet Another Incorrect IPCC Assessment: Antarctic Sea Ice Increase

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c) Temperaturtrend auf antarktischer Halbinsel nicht nachvollziehbar
en Antarctic Agreements and Disagreements

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how to lie
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d) Eis in der Ostantarktis wird von unten her dicker
en East Antarctic Ice Sheet getting thicker from underneath

Quelle/ Source:

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e) Klimamodelle können die Zunahme des antarktischen Meereises nicht nachvollziehen
en Antarctic sea ice reaches record high while IPCC models predicted the opposite

Quelle / Source;

 

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6 Hurrikane / Hurricans / Ouragans

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a) Hurrikane
en Hurricans
fr Ouracans

Global accumulated cyclone energy
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Normalized US Hurricane Damage 1900-2012, Including Sandy
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Historical Storm Surges, South Rhode Island
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North Hemishere Total
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Die atlantische Hurrikan-Aktivität (ACE) der vergangenen 60 Jahre verlief parallel zur Entwicklung der Atlantisch Multidekaden Oszillation (AMO) hurrikan_amo
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7 Wassermangel / Water Shortage / Pénurie d'eau

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a) Allgemeine Betrachtungen
en General considerations
fr Considerations générales

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a) Enge Korrelation zwischen Sonnenaktivität und Wassermengen in Flüssen und Seen
en Solar to river flow and lake level correlations

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de Weniger Sonnenflecken → kälter → trockener
en Less sunspots → colder → dryer
Sonne-Wasser
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de Korrelation zwischen der Sonnenaktivität (gemessen an der Zahl der Sonnenflecken) und der Wassermenge, die der südamerikanische Fluß Parana führt.

Der Parana ist der zweitgrößte Fluß Südamerikas. Der gewaltige Itaipu-Damm mit einer installierten Kraftwerksleistung von 14.000 MW staut den Parana.

en The figure above is after a figure from Maus et al 2010 "Long term solar activity influences on South American rivers".

It shows a very good correlation between solar activity, as measured by sunspot number, and the flow rate of the Parana River, the second largest river in South America.

The Parana River now hosts the Itaipu Dam with installed capacity of 14,000 MW.

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      50 x 50 Pixel Our prediction for Solar Cycle 24 in terms of F10.7 flux is shown following:
Solar Flux
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Die AGW-Anhänger behaupten, der Einfluß der Sonne auf das Klima sei gering, da sich der Betrag der Sonnenstrahlung nur gering mit dem Sonnenfleckenzyklus ändere.

Wenn aber die Sonnenaktivität offenbar die Wassermengen in Flüssen und Seen steuert, ist ein Einfluß auf andere Aspekte des Wettergeschehens mindestens plausibel.

de Der nur sehr zögerlich gestartete und sich schwach entwickelnde Zyklus 24 läßt angesichts des Einflusses auf die Flüsse verschiedene Folgen erwarten:

  1. Massive Einbußen z.B. bei den kanadischen Getreideernten
  2. Dürre in Zentralsüdamerika
  3. Dürre in Ostafrika
  4. Massive Einbußen bei der Wasserkraft-Ausbeute in Brasilien und Paraguay

Wenn diese vorhergesagte Folgen eines schwachen Sonnenfleckenzyklus 24 eintreten, werden die CAGW-Anhänger zweifellos versuchen, sie als Konsequenzen der vermeintlichen globalen Erwärmung zu vermarkten - selbst wenn es bis dahin global kälter werden sollte.

en Given the link between East African and central South American rainfall and solar activity, the list of economic impacts from the current solar minimum (Solar Cycles 24 and 25) can be expanded to:

  1. Canadian agricultural will get a severe whacking from a shortened growing season and un-seasonal frosts.
  2. Drought in central South America
  3. Drought in East Africa
  4. Paraguay and Brazil having severe power shortages.

This list is by no means exhaustive.

The last time the world witnessed mass starvation was the 1965-67 drought in India which killed 1.5 million people.

Things don't look pretty.

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b) IPCC unterschlägt die Abnahme der Gefahr von Wassermangel in der Zukunft
en The IPCC: Hiding the Decline in the Future Global Population at Risk of Water Shortage

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c) Klimamodelle hinterfragt: Wasserhaushalt schwankte im 20. Jahrhundert weniger stark als erwartet

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8 IPCC Rapporte korrumpiert? / IPCC Reports corrupted?

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a) Sind die IPCC Rapporte korrumpiert?
en Are the IPCC Reports corrupted?
fr Les rapport du GIEC sont-ils corrompus?

de IPCC Rapporte - Korruption?

  • "Dieser Report enthält nicht, was die auf der Titelseite des Rapports angegebenen Wissenschaftler angenommen haben."

  • "Mindestens 15 Schlüssel-Abschnitte wurden gestrichen", wie zum Beispiel:

  • "Keiner der obenerwähnten Studien zeigt einen klaren Beweis, dass der Klimawandel der Erhöhung der Treibhausgase zugeordnet werden kann."

  • "Die Änderungen seien auf die Antwort von Regierungen, individuellen Wissenschaftlerrn und NGO's vorgenommen worden."

en IPCC Reports - Corruption?

  • "This report is not what was approved by the contributing scientists listed on the title page."

  • "At least 15 key sections have been deleted." These include statements as:

  • "None of the studies cited above has shown clear evidence that we can attribute the observed [climate] changes to the specific cause of increases in greenhouse gases".

  • "No study to date has positively attributed all or part of the climate change observed to date to anthropogenic [manmade] causes."

  • Professor Seitz concluded:
    "I have never witnessed a more disturbing corruption of peer-review process than the events that led to this IPCC report."

  • "In his reply IPCC did not deny making these deletions but stated:
    There has been no dishonesty, no corruption of the peer-review process and no bias and that uncertainties have not been suppressed."

  • "Changes were in response to comments from governments, individual scientifists and non-governmental organizations."

fr Rapports du GIEC - Corrompu?

  • "Ce n'est pas la version qui a été approuvée par les scientifiques participants listés en première page."

  • "Au moins 15 parties de la section science ont été supprimées", comprenant des sections comme:

  • "Aucune des études citées ci-dessus n'a montré de preuve claire que nous pouvons attribuer les changement climatiques observée à la cause spécifique de l'augmentation des gaz à effet de serre."

  • "Aucune étude à ce jour n'a attribué de manière positive, tout ou une partie des changements climatiques observés aux causes humaines."

  • La conclusion de Professeur Seitz:
    "Je n'ai jamais été témoins d'une corruption plus dérangeante du processus de relecture par des pairs que dans ce rapport du GIEC."

  • "Dans sa réponse, le GIEC n'a pas nié avoir fait ces suppressions mais il disait qu'il n'y avait pas de malhonnêteté ou biais dans le rapport et que les incertitudes sur les causes du réchauffement global ont été incluses."

  • "Les changements ont été faits, dit le GIEC, en réponse aux commentaires venant des gouvernements, des scientifiques individuels et des ONG."