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⬆1. 6. 5 Fehler der Klimamacher II

1.6.5 Fehler der "Klimamacher" Teil II
en Errors of the "Climatemakers" Part II
fr Erreurs des "faiseurs du climat" partie II

de Teil I en Part I fr Partie I

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The Greenhouse Gamble: Ronald Prinn, director of MIT's Center for Global Change Science, and his group have revised their model that shows how much hotter the Earth's climate will get in this century without substantial policy change
Game of Roulette
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1 Keine wissenschaftliche Objektivität des IPCC
en No scientific objectivity of the IPCC
fr Pas d'objectivité scientifique du GIEC

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2 Falsche Klima-Modelle
en Wrong Climate Models
fr Modèles climatiques èronnés

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Climate Models
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How reliable are the climate models?

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      50 x 50 Pixel IPCC Climate Models
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Factor Understood?   Contribution to models’ predicted future warming
ENSO No 0%
Ocean Oscillations No 0%
Ocean Currents No 0%
Volcanoes No 0%
Wind No 0%
Water Cycle Partly (built into Water Vapour, below)
The Sun No 0%
Galactic Cosmic Rays (and aerosols) No 0%
Milankovich cycles No 0%
Carbon Dioxide Yes 37%
Water Vapour Partly 22% but suspect
Clouds No 41%, all highly suspect
Other 0%
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IPCC Realität
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A Allgemein
en Geneal
fr Générale

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1 Climatology and Paleoclimatology Resources
en Climate models and modeling groups

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2 Wie funktionieren die Klimamodelle?
en How models are working?
fr Comment Fonctionnent les Modèles du Climat?

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3 Prognoseleistung von Klimamodellen auf dem Prüfstand: Mehr als die Hälfte der Erde hält sich nicht an die Vorhersagen

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B Fehler der IPCC-Klimamodelle
en Errors of the IPCC Climate Models
fr Erreurs des modèles sur le climat du GIEC

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1 Allgemein / General / Générale

Die "Anthropogene Globale Erwärmung" basiert hauptsächlich auf dem CO2-Treibhauseffekt und gibt dem Menschen die Hauptschuld am Klimawandel.

Neue Forschungen werden von den Verfechtern der Anthropogenen Globalen Erwärmungnicht berücksichtigt, denn dadurch würde deren ganze Theorie zusammenbrechen.

Die Auswirkungen dieser Politik sind enorm.

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2 The Global Warming Hypothesis and Ocean Heat

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3 Why we cannot trust the IPCC Climate Models for Global Warming Predictions

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4 Scientists Issue Unprecedented Forecast of Next Sunspot Cycle

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5 Peinlicher Fehler im Klimamodell

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6 Fatal Errors in IPCC'S Global Climate Models

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7 Fehler der IPCC-Klimamodelle
Erwärmung viel geringer und ohne gravierende Konsequenzen

Es gibt viele wissenschaftliche Stimmen, die aus Messungen und Beobachtungen ableiten, dass die Erwärmung viel geringer und ohne gravierende Konsequenzen sein wird und das IPCC irrt.
Ihre Argumentation ist die folgende:

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C Fundamental falsche Modelle
en Fundamentally wrong models
fr Modèles eronnées

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1 en Satellite and Climate Model Evidence Against Substantial Manmade Climate Change

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2 en How many IPCC scientists fabricate and falsify research [In Climate Models]

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3 en 7 years' global cooling at 3.6°F (2°C)/century

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7 years' global cooling
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4 Climate Models vs Climate Reality

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Model Ensembles and HadCRUT
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Who would like to bet the following outcomes on the models being correct.

  1. Higher taxes.
  2. Increased energy costs.
  3. Greater Government control.
  4. Biofuel induced food price increases.
  5. Intermittent electricity supplies.
  6. Increased export of manufacturing to other countries (i.e China).
  7. Reduced jobs as business costs increase.

Of course, if the models have no basis in reality and Anthropogenic Global Warming Catastrophism is an artefact of modelling - then the above outcomes can be avoided by pretty much doing nothing.

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5 Mittelmeer steigt um bis zu 61 Zentimeter

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6 Meeresspiegelanstieg bedroht New York City

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7 Climate model forecasts dramatic changes in U.S.

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8 Antarctic temperatures disagree with climate model predictions

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9 Concerns About Climate Model Reliability

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10 UBA: Peinlicher Fehler im Klimamodell

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11 UN IPCC Scientist Richard Courtney: Climate models "fundamentally wrong"

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12 en Climate Model Deficiencies in IPCC AR4 PSB
Climate Model Deficiencies in IPCC AR4 PSB
Chapter Section Page Quotation
6 6.5.1.3 462 "Current spatial coverage, temporal resolution and age control of available Holocene proxy data limit the ability to determine if there were multi-decadal periods of global warmth comparable to he last half of the 20th century."
6 6.7 483 "Knowledge of climate variability over the last 1 to 2 kyr in the SH and tropics is severely limited by the lack of paleoclimatic records. In the NH, the situation is better, but there are important limitations due to a lack of tropical records and ocean records. Differing amplitudes and variability observed in available millennial-length NH temperature reconstructions, and the extent to which these differences relate to choice of proxy data and statistical calibration methods, need to be reconciled. Similarly, the understanding of how climatic extremes (i.e., in temperature and hydro-climatic variables) varied in the past is incomplete. Lastly, this assessment would be improved with extensive networks of proxy data that run up to the present day. This would help measure how the proxies responded to the rapid global warming observed in the last 20 years, and it would also improve the ability to investigate the extent to which other, non-temperature, environmental changes may have biased the climate response of proxies in recent decades."
8 Executive Summary 591 "The possibility that metrics based on observations might be used to constrain model projections of climate change has been explored for the first time, through the analysis of ensembles of model simulations. Nevertheless, a proven set of model metrics that might be used to narrow the range of plausible climate projections has yet to be developed."
8 Executive Summary 593 “ Recent studies reaffirm that the spread of climate sensitivity estimates among models arises primarily from inter-model differences in cloud feedbacks. The shortwave impact of changes in boundary-layer clouds, and to a lesser extent mid-level clouds, constitutes the largest contributor to inter-model differences in global cloud feedbacks. The relatively poor simulation of these clouds in the present climate is a reason for some concern. The response to global warming of deep convective clouds is also a substantial source of uncertainty in projections since current models predict different responses of these clouds. Observationally based evaluation of cloud feedbacks indicates that climate models exhibit different strengths and weaknesses, and it is not yet possible to determine which estimates of the climate change cloud feedbacks are the most reliable.”
8 8.1.2.2 594 “What does the accuracy of a climate model’s simulation of past or contemporary climate say about the accuracy of its projections of climate change” This question is just beginning to be addressed, exploiting the newly available ensembles of models.”
8 8.1.2.2 595 “The above studies show promise that quantitative metrics for the likelihood of model projections may be developed, but because the development of robust metrics is still at an early stage, the model evaluations presented in this chapter are based primarily on experience and physical reasoning, as has been the norm in the past.”
8 8.3 608 “Consequently, for models to predict future climatic conditions reliably, they must simulate the current climatic state with some as yet unknown degree of fidelity.”
8 8.6.3.2.3 638 “Although the errors in the simulation of the different cloud types may eventually compensate and lead to a prediction of the mean CRF in agreement with observations (see Section 8.3), they cast doubts on the reliability of the model cloud feedbacks.”
8 8.6.3.2.3 638 “Modelling assumptions controlling the cloud water phase (liquid, ice or mixed) are known to be critical for the prediction of climate sensitivity. However, the evaluation of these assumptions is just beginning (Doutraix-Boucher and Quaas, 2004; Naud et al., 2006).
8 8.6.4 640 “A number of diagnostic tests have been proposed since the TAR (see Section 8.6.3), but few of them have been applied to a majority of the models currently in use. Moreover, it is not yet clear which tests are critical for constraining future projections. Consequently, a set of model metrics that might be used to narrow the range of plausible climate change feedbacks and climate sensitivity has yet to be developed.”
9 Executive Summary 665 “Difficulties remain in attributing temperature changes on smaller than continental scales and over time scales of less than 50 years. Attribution at these scales, with limited exceptions, has not yet been established.”
10 10.1 754 “Since the ensemble is strictly an ‘ensemble of opportunity’, without sampling protocol, the spread of models does not necessarily span the full possible range of uncertainty, and a statistical interpretation of the model spread is therefore problematic.”
10 10.5.4.2 805 “The AOGCMs featured in Section 10.5.2 are built by selecting components from a pool of alternative parameterizations, each based on a given set of physical assumptions and including a number of uncertain parameters.”

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13 Klima-Burnout / Klima-Modelle

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14 Neue AWI-Forschung bestätigt: Klimamodelle können die Temperaturen der letzten 6000 Jahre nicht reproduzieren
en New AWI Research Confirms: Climate Models Cannot Reproduce Temperatures Of The Last 6000 Years

de

en

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15 Zwei Jahre umsonst gerechnet: Schade um die verlorene Rechenzeit

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16 Klimamodelle und Temperaturrekonstruktionen wollen einfach nicht zusammenpassen: Neue Studie vom Hamburger Max-Planck Institut für Meteorologie

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17 Temperatur-Prognosen der Klima-Modelle: Bis heute für alle Atmosphären-Schichten falsch !
en German Meteorologist On Temperature Models: "So Far They Are Wrong For ALL Atmospheric Layers!"

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18 Klimamodelle können die Zunahme des antarktischen Meereises nicht nachvollziehen
en Antarctic sea ice reaches record high while IPCC models predicted the opposite

Quelle / Source;

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19 Klimamodelle kriegen die Ozeanzyklen nicht in den Griff
en Antarctic sea ice reaches record high while IPCC models predicted the opposite

Quelle / Source;

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20 en New model says more snow at poles, less elsewhere due to CO2

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21 de Klimamodell der neuesten Generation versagt bei der Temperaturberechnung Skandinaviens für die letzten 80 Jahre

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22 Grandioses Scheitern des kanadischen Klimamodells
en Epic Failure of the Canadian Climate Model

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23 en Climate models - worse than we thought

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24 Eine weitere Unsicherheit für Klimamodelle - gleiche Modelle liefern unterschiedliche Ergebnisse, wenn auf unterschiedlichen Computern gerechnet
en Another uncertainty for climate models - different results on different computers using the same code

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25 de Neue AWI-Studie warnt: Klimamodelle unterschätzen natürliche Schwankungen der Meeresoberflächentemperaturen um den Faktor 50

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26 de Modelle können Zunahme des antarktischen Meereises nicht reproduzieren

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27 de Klimamodelle rekonstruieren Niederschlagsentwicklungen nur mit gröbsten Fehlern

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3 Tropen: Falsche Resultate der Panik-Modelle
en The Tropics: Wrong results of the climate models
fr Les tropiques: Fausses résultats des des modèles climatiques

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Tropische Atmosphäre
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de Die Atmosphäre im rot markierten Bereich ist Gegenstand der Suche nach dem menschlichen Fingerprint des Klimawandels.

Resultat: Keine Belege für den sogenannten lang gesuchten menschlichen Fingerabdruck als Wirkmechanismus auf das Klima.

en We examine tropospheric temperature trends of model simulations and try to reconcile them with the best available updated observations.

Result: Model results and observed temperature trends are in disagreement in most of the tropical troposphere.

de Die Atmosphäre im rot markierten Bereich ist Gegenstand der Suche nach dem menschlichen Fingerprint des Klimawandels.

Bis zu einer Höhe von ca. 14 km soll sich die Atmosphäre stärker erwärmt haben als die Oberfläche. So lautet das Ergebnis von allen Modellstudien des IPCC wie sie im Report von 2007 dokumentiert sind.

Die Studie von Douglass, et al kommt zu dem Schluss, dass die Messungen das Gegenteil zeigen. Die Atmosphäre hat sich langsamer erwärmt als die Oberfläche.

en ABSTRACT:

We examine tropospheric temperature trends of 67 runs from 22 'Climate of the 20th Century' model simulations and try to reconcile them with the best available updated observations (in the tropics during the satellite era).

Model results and observed temperature trends are in disagreement in most of the tropical troposphere, being separated by more than twice the uncertainty of the model mean.

In layers near 5 km, the modelled trend is 100 to 300% higher than observed, and, above 8 km, modelled and observed trends have opposite signs.

These conclusions contrast strongly with those of recent publications based on essentially the same data.

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4 Der in den Panik-Modellen vorausgesagte Hotspot ist nicht vorhanden
en The missing Hotspot
fr Le 'hotspot' (point chaud) manque

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5 IPCC Modelle können die Zunahme des antarktischen Meereises nicht erklären
en IPCC models cannot explain progress in Antarctic Sea Ice
fr Les modèles du GIEC ne peuvent pas expliquer l'augmentation de la glace maritime en antarctique

Quelle / Source;

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6 Polare Klimaschaukel: Panik-Modelle können dies nicht erklären
en Polar see-saw cannot be explained by climate models
fr Balançoire polaire ne peut pas être représneté par les modèles

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7 Falsche Prognosen
en Wrong prognostics
fr Fausses pronostiques

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A Fehlprognosen von Umweltaktivisten
en Failed Environmentalist Predictions

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1 Sieben grandiose Fehlprognosen von Umweltaktivistenn
en Seven Big Failed Environmentalist Predictions

Quelle / Source:

 

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2 25 Jahre Vorhersage eines 'Kipp-Punktes' bzgl. der globalen Erwärmung
en 25 Years Of Predicting The Global Warming 'Tipping Point'

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B Falsche Prognosen mit den Computer-Modellen
en Big Failed Environmentalist Predictions

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1 Climate forecasts have serious methodological errors, little connection with reality

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2 The big list of failed climate predictions

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3 The Greenhouse Gamble

de Aus der Panik-Küche en From the panic laboratory fr De la marmite des alarmistes

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The Greenhouse Gamble: Ronald Prinn, director of MIT's Center for Global Change Science, and his group have revised their model that shows how much hotter the Earth's climate will get in this century without substantial policy change
Game of Roulette
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de

en

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C Falsche und immer wieder korrigierte Szenarien und Prognosen des IPCC

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1 IPCC im Jahr 2007: "Es bleiben vielleicht nur noch acht Jahre bis zur Klimakatastrophe"
en UN scientists warn time is running out to tackle global warming

Quellen / Sources:

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2 Panik-Angaben des IPCC werden immer kleiner

"Anthropogener" Meeresspiegelanstieg - Vom Konstrukt zur Panik?

Die IPCCPrognosen passen sich mehr und mehr der Realität von ca. 20 cm/Jahrhundert an.

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      32 x 32 Pixel Abb. 10. Prognosen des IPCC zum Meeresspiegelanstieg im 21. Jahrhundert Abb. 10. Prognosen des IPCC zum Meeresspiegelanstieg im 21. Jahrhundert
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Aussage betreffend Anstieg des Meeresspiegels:

Globale Erwärmung

Prognosen des IPCC
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Erwärmung und Anstieg der Meere

Year of Forecast

Rate of Warming

 Greenhouse Effect by 2030
   

 Temperature Rise

  Sea Level Rise

 1988

 0.8 C per decade

 3.0 C

 20 to 150 cm

 1990

 0.3 C per decade

 1.2 C

  15 to 40 cm

 1995

 0.2 C per decade

  0.8 C

  5 to 35 cm
Source: Dr. Brian O'Brien, October 1997

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3 Falsche Prognosen des IPCC:
Das CO2 steigt und die Temperaturen fallen
en CO2 is rising and the temperatures are falling
fr Le CO2 monte et les températures baissent

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D Falsche Prognosen der Warmisten
en Wrong prognostics of the Warmist Gurus
fr Fausses prévisions des gurus réchauffistes

 

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1 Was ist eigentlich aus James Hansens Temperaturvorhersagen geworden?
en James Hansen's climate forecasta of 1988: a whopping 150% wrong

1986

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WASHINGTON, June 10 1986

The rise in carbon dioxide and other gases in the earth's atmosphere will have an earlier and more pronounced impact on global temperature and climate than previously expected, according to evidence presented to a Senate subcommittee today.

Scientists and senators at a hearing by the Environmental Pollution Subcommittee agreed that the dangers of manmade changes in the atmosphere had moved from hypothesis to imminent reality and must be addressed quickly.

They said the rise in temperatures was expected to cause profound climatic changes and raise sea levels substantially.

Witnesses at the hearing also testified that the ozone layer of the upper atmosphere, which protects the earth from the sun's ultraviolet light, is being rapidly depleted by manmade gases, and the increased ultraviolet radiation would result in a rise in skin cancer cases and other ecological damage.

Dr. James E. Hansen of the Goddard Space Flight Center's Institute for Space Studies said research by his institute showed that because of the ''greenhouse effect'' that results when gases prevent heat from escaping the earth's atmosphere, global temperatures would rise early in the next century to ''well above any level experienced in the past 100,000 years.'' Steeper Rise in Next Century

Average global temperatures would rise by one-half a degree to one degree Fahrenheit from 1990 to 2000 if current trends are unchanged, according to Dr. Hansen's findings.

Dr. Hansen said the global temperature would rise by another 2 to 4 degrees in the following decade.

While the effect of small increases in global temperature is now unclear, Andrew Maguire, vice president of the World Resources Institute, a Washington research and policy group, said that the doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide that is foreseen would cause a rise of 3 to 8 degrees in temperature by the 2030's.

He said this would devastate agriculture in the United States and elsewhere, and would cause a rise in sea level of some 4.5 feet as polar ice melted.

Earlier projections of warming trends had held that they would not occur before the middle of the next century.

One of the reasons that scientists now expect faster and higher temperature rises is the emerging consensus that gases other than the carbon dioxide emitted by the burning of such fossil fuels as coal are playing a major role in the greenhouse effect.

The greenhouse effect is the name given to the phenomenon created when carbon dioxide, methane, chlorofluorocarbons and other gases accumulate in the atmosphere and prevent radiant heat from the sun that has reached the earth's surface from escaping back into space.

Dr. Hansen and other scientists testifying today said there was now broad consensus among scientists that the greenhouse effect was speeding up the increase in global temperatures. Less Urgency in 1983

In 1983 a report by the National Academy of Sciences said the greenhouse effect was a ''cause for concern,'' but concluded that there was time to prepare for its impact.

The academy report projected a doubling of greenhouse gases by the third quarter of the next century.

Dr. Hansen's research, however, found that if there is no change in the current rate of growth, the greenhouse gases would double by the late 2020's.

A report by the Environmental Protection Agency three years ago said the warming trend could start by the 1990's and could reach as much as 4 degrees Fahrenheit by 2040, but this was attacked by President Reagan's science adviser at the time, George A. Keyworth, as ''unnecessarily alarmist.''

Today, the scientists and the senators on the subcommittee asserted that there must be national and international action now to mitigate and deal with the imminent effects of the atmospheric changes taking place as a result of human activity. Chafee Asks Early Action

Senator John H. Chafee, the Rhode Island Republican who is chairman of the subcommittee, quoted a recent assessment by the Department of Energy, which said, ''Human effects on atmospheric composition and the size and operations of the terrestrial ecosystems may yet overwhelm the life-support system crafted in nature over billions of years.''

Senator Chafee said it would be too risky to wait until all the answers about atmospheric changes were known before taking action.

He called for the Reagan Administration to take up the issue at the next international economic summit meeting and also at the President's next meeting with the Soviet leader, Mikhail S. Gorbachev. While the scientists testified today that it would be some time before there was enough data to pinpoint regional climatic changes, it was considered likely that some of today's most productive agricultural areas would become too arid for farming.

They also testified that a ''hole,'' in which the ozone has been reduced by some 40 percent, has formed in the ozone layer over Antarctica.

While many aerosol uses of chlorofluorocarbons have been banned in this country, their use in other applications is increasing, and they continue to be used in aerosols in other countries.

1988

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A
de Zunahme der CO2-Emissionen um 1.5% pro Jahr
en Increase of 1.5% CO2 emissions per year

B
de Konstante Zunahme der CO2-Emissionen nach dem Jahr 2000
en Approximate constant increase of CO2 emissions after 2000

C
de Keine Zunahme der CO2-Emissions nach dem Jahr 2000
en No increase in CO2 emissions after the year 2000

Laut der Hansen-Prognose müsste die Temperatur gegenüber dem Vergleichs­niveau in den 1970er Jahren um 1,5°C angestiegen sein.

In Wahrheit hat sich die Temperatur jedoch lediglich um 0,6°C erhöht.

 

Die CO2-Emissionen sind seit dem Jahr 2000 um jährlich etwa 2,5 Prozent angestiegen, so dass wir gemäß dem Hansen-Paper einen Temperatur­anstieg erwarten würden, der stärker als in Modell A ausfallen sollte.

Es ist ersichtlich, dass die von der Hansen-Gruppe 1988 modellierte Temperatur­vorhersage um etwa 150% danebenliegt.

Es ist überaus bedauerlich, dass genau diese Art von Modellierungen von unseren Politikern noch immer als verlässliche Klimavorhersage angesehen wird.

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2 Prognosen von Professor Graßl

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3 Prognosen des Potsdam Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK)

How reliable are the climate models?

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Factor Understood?   Contribution to models’ predicted future warming
ENSO No 0%
Ocean Oscillations No 0%
Ocean Currents No 0%
Volcanoes No 0%
Wind No 0%
Water Cycle Partly (built into Water Vapour, below)
The Sun No 0%
Galactic Cosmic Rays (and aerosols) No 0%
Milankovich cycles No 0%
Carbon Dioxide Yes 37%
Water Vapour Partly 22% but suspect
Clouds No 41%, all highly suspect
Other 0%
Lupe (Icon)) 
      24 x 24 Pixel Buch (Icon) 
      50 x 50 Pixel PIK Vizechef Edenhofer
(Vorsitzender der Arbeitsgruppe III des Weltklimarats IPCC):
Die Besitzer von Kohle, Öl und Gasvorkommen müssen enteignet werden.
IPCC Realität
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4 Prognosen von Professor Mojib Latif

Prof. Latif 1997

Prof. Latif 2000

Prof. Latif 2003

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Latif warm
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Prof. Latif 2004

Prof. Latif 2008

Prof. Latif 2009

Prof. Latif 2010

Kommentar von Andreas Kreuzmann (Klimaskeptiker.info):

Prof. Latif 2012

Prof. Latif 2015

Man hat aus der Pleite gelernt

Nur noch 15 Jahre bleiben nach ihrer Ansicht, um den Klimawandel in den Griff zu bekommen. "Wenn der weltweite Kohlendioxidausstoß 2030 immer noch steigt, wird es zu spät sein", sagt der Klimaforscher Mojib Latif vom Kieler Helmholtz-Zentrum für Ozeanforschung.

Es ist das erste Mal, dass Latif sich öffentlich so konkret festlegt.

Quellen / Sources:

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      120 x 120 Pixel Indische Kohlekraftwerke

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      120 x 120 Pixel USA: Kohle und Kohlekraftwerke

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      120 x 120 Pixel de Die Vereinigten Staaten sind das "Saudi Arabien" der Kohle
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      120 x 120 Pixel en America is the "Saudi Arabia" of Coal
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      120 x 120 Pixel fr Les Étas Unis sont "l'Arabie Saoudite" du charbon

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5 Prognosen von UK Met Office

de Flop des UK Met Office 2007: "Bis 2014 wird es um 0,3°C wärmer"
en Smith et al (2007): 0.3°C in 10 years

Quellen / Sources:

en Met Office Global Forecasts Too Warm In 13 Of Last 14 Years

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6 15 Years Since The UN Declared The North Pole To Be Ice-Free

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7 Gore: Polar ice cap may disappear by summer 2014

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8 John Holdren - Obamas Wissenschaftsberater

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Eine Milliarde CO2-Todesfälle durch Hungersnot bevor 2020

Mehrere prominente Wissenschaftler, haben für die letzten 4 Jahrzehnte eine Katastrophe vorausgesagt, wenn wir fossile Brennstoffe weiterhin nutzen.

Im Jahr 1985 sagte Obamas Wissenschaftsberater John Holdren voraus, dass wir jetzt, nahe an einer Milliarde CO2-Todesfälle durch Hungersnot seien, bevor wir 2020 erreichen.

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9 Weitere Prognosen

Top 10 FAILED Global Warming Predictions

ABC News: 2008 prediction about climate in 2015 .. what a gaffe!

de Im Jahr 2008 strahlte der US-amerikanische Sender abcnews eine Sendung zur Klimagefahr aus.

Die wichtigste Nachricht: Schon sieben Jahre später, 2015, würde das Klima verrückt spielen und sich die Klimakatastrophen häufen.

Alles falsch, wie wir heute wissen.

Ungeachtet dieses Fehlschlags werden auch auch heute noch ähnliche Filme produziert.

Wenn dann das Prognosejahr erreicht ist, wird sich eh niemand mehr an die verrückten Schauergeschichten erinnern.

Quellle Source

Nine Years Since The New York Times Announced The End Of Winter

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D Keine wissenschaftlich fundierten Vorhersagen der Globalen Erwärmung
en No Scientific Forecasts to Support Global Warming
fr Pas de prognostiques scientifiques pour le réchauffement climatique

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1 de Zweifelhafte wissenschaftliche Methoden bei Klima-Voraussagen

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2 en No Scientific Forecasts to Support Global Warming

Drs. J. Scott Armstrong and Kesten C. Green were asked by US Senator Inhofe for an analysis of the EPA's proposed policies for greenhouse gases

EPA = U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

  1. No scientific forecasts of the changes in the Earth's climate.

    Currently, the only forecasts are those based on the opinions of some scientists. Computer modeling was used to create scenarios (i.e., stories) to represent the scientists' opinions about what might happen.

    The models were not intended as forecasting models (Trenberth 2007) and they have not been validated for that purpose.

    Since the publication of our paper, no one has provided evidence to refute our claim that there are no scientific forecasts to support global warming.

    We conducted an audit of the procedures described in the IPCC report and found that they clearly violated 72 scientific principles of forecasting (Green and Armstrong 2008). (No justification was provided for any of these violations.)

    For important forecasts, we can see no reason why any principle should be violated. We draw analogies to flying an aircraft or building a bridge or performing heart surgery-given the potential cost of errors, it is not permissible to violate principles.

  2. Improper peer review process.

    To our knowledge, papers claiming to forecast global warming have not been subject to peer review by experts in scientific forecasting.

  3. Complexity and uncertainty of climate render expert opinions invalid for forecasting.

    Expert opinions are an inappropriate forecasting method in situations that involve high complexity and high uncertainty.

    This conclusion is based on over eight decades of research.

    Armstrong (1978) provided a review of the evidence and this was supported by Tetlock's (2005) study that involved 82,361 forecasts by 284 experts over two decades.

    Long-term climate changes are highly complex due to the many factors that affect climate and to their interactions.

    Uncertainty about long-term climate changes is high due to a lack of good knowledge about such things as:

    1. causes of climate change,
    2. direction, lag time, and effect size of causal factors related to climate change,
    3. effects of changing temperatures, and
    4. costs and benefits of alternative actions to deal with climate changes (e.g., CO2 markets).

    Given these conditions, expert opinions are not appropriate for long-term climate predictions.

  4. Forecasts are needed for the effects of climate change.

    Even if it were possible to forecast climate changes, it would still be necessary to forecast the effects of climate changes.

    In other words, in what ways might the effects be beneficial or harmful?

    Here again, we have been unable to find any scientific forecasts-as opposed to speculation-despite our appeals for such studies.

    We addressed this issue with respect to studies involving the possible classification of polar bears as threatened or endangered (Armstrong, Green, and Soon 2008).

    In our audits of two key papers to support the polar bear listing, 41 principles were clearly violated by the authors of one paper and 61 by the authors of the other.

    It is not proper from a scientific or from a practical viewpoint to violate any principles.

    Again, there was no sign that the forecasters realized that they were making mistakes.

  5. Forecasts are needed of the costs and benefits of alternative actions that might be taken to combat climate change.

    Assuming that climate change could be accurately forecast, it would be necessary to forecast the costs and benefits of actions taken to reduce harmful effects, and to compare the net benefit with other feasible policies including taking no action.

    Here again we have been unable to find any scientific forecasts despite our appeals for such studies.

  6. To justify using a climate forecasting model, one would need to test it against a relevant naïve model.

    We used the Forecasting Method Selection Tree to help determine which method is most appropriate for forecasting long-term climate change. A copy of the Tree is attached as Appendix 1.

    It is drawn from comparative empirical studies from all areas of forecasting.

    It suggests that extrapolation is appropriate, and we chose a naïve (no change) model as an appropriate benchmark.

    A forecasting model should not be used unless it can be shown to provide forecasts that are more accurate than those from this naïve model, as it would otherwise increase error.

    In Green, Armstrong and Soon (2008), we show that the mean absolute error of 108 naïve forecasts for 50 years in the future was 0.24°C.

  7. The climate system is stable.

    To assess stability, we examined the errors from naïve forecasts for up to 100 years into the future.

    Using the U.K. Met Office Hadley Centre's data, we started with 1850 and used that year's average temperature as our forecast for the next 100 years.

    We then calculated the errors for each forecast horizon from 1 to 100.

    We repeated the process using the average temperature in 1851 as our naïve forecast for the next 100 years, and so on.

    This "successive updating" continued until year 2006, when we forecasted a single year ahead.

    This provided 157 one-year-ahead forecasts, 156 two-year-ahead and so on to 58 100-year-ahead forecasts.

    We then examined how many forecasts were further than 0.5°C from the observed value.

    Fewer than 13% of forecasts of up to 65-years-ahead had absolute errors larger than 0.5°C.

    For longer horizons, fewer than 33% had absolute errors larger than 0.5°C.

    Given the remarkable stability of global mean temperature, it is unlikely that there would be any practical benefits from a forecasting method that provided more accurate forecasts.

  8. Be conservative and avoid the precautionary principle.

    One of the primary scientific principles in forecasting is to be conservative in the darkness of uncertainty. This principle also argues for the use of the naive no-change extrapolation. Some have argued for the precautionary principle as a way to be conservative. It is a political, not a scientific principle.

    As we explain in our essay in Appendix 2, it is actually an anti-scientific principle in that it attempts to make decisions without using rational analyses. Instead, cost/benefit analyses are appropriate given the available evidence which suggests that temperature is just as likely to go up as down.

    However, these analyses should be supported by scientific forecasts.

    The reach of these models is extraordinary, for example, the CSIRO models are currently being used in Australia to determine water allocations for farmers and to justify the need for an Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) - the most far-reaching of possible economic interventions.

    Yet, according to Dr Armstrong, these same models violate 72 scientific principles.

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8 Alarmisten-Prognose 2008: "Erderwärmung macht zehn Jahre Pause"
en Computer models 2008: "Global Warming makes a pause of 10 years"
fr Modèles d'ordinateur 2008: "Le rechauffement climatique fait une pause de 10 ans"

de Aus der Panik-Küche en From the panic laboratory fr De la marmite des alarmistes

Das ist keine Wissenschaft mehr !
en That is not science anymore !
fr Ce n'est plus de la science !

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9 Klimaerwärmung auch wenn es kälter wird
en Global Warming also when it gets colder
fr Réchauffement climatique même s'il devient plus froid

Globale Erwärmung führt zur Abkühlung !
en Colder winters possible due to Global Warming !
fr Refroidissement par le réchauffement climatique !

Siehe auch / See also / Voir aussi:

Pfeil nach rechts (Icon)
      120 x 120 Pixel Prognosen yon Professor Latif

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a) Klimawissenschaftlerin der Rutgers University: Europa steht möglicherweise erneut ein harter Winter ins Haus
en Guardian Have All Bases Covered

de Aus der Panik-Küche en From the panic laboratory fr De la marmite des alarmistes

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10 Das CO2 steigt und die Temperaturen fallen
IPCC zeigt die Abkühlung nicht und kann sie nicht erklären

en CO2 is rising and the temperatures are falling
IPCC doesn't show the cooling and cannot explain it

fr Le CO2 monte et les températures baissent
Le GIEC ne montre pas le refroidissement et ne peut pas l'expliquer

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a) Das CO2 steigt und die Temperaturen fallen
en CO2 is rising and the temperatures are falling
fr Le CO2 monte et les températures baissent

Lupe (Icon)) 
      24 x 24 Pixel Buch (Icon) 
      50 x 50 Pixel Hadley (CRUT3v) and MSU (Satellite Lower Trop) Temps vs CO2
World Temperatures Falling whilst  keeps rising 
      960 x 720 Pixel

de Das CO2 steigt, die Temperaturen fallen.
Wenn das CO2 die Erwärmung erklärt, muss es auch die Abkühlung erklären ...

en CO2 is rising, the temperatures are falling.
If the CO2 explains the warming, it must also explain the cooling ...

fr Le CO2 monte, les températures baissent.
Si le CO2 explique le réchauffement, il doit aussi expliquer le refroidissement ...

Lupe (Icon)) 
      24 x 24 Pixel Buch (Icon) 
      50 x 50 Pixel Climate Models vs Reality
7 years' global cooling at 2°C/century

7 years' global cooling
      600 x 450 Pixel
Who would like to bet the following outcomes on the models being correct.
  1. Higher taxes.
  2. Increased energy costs.
  3. Greater Government control.
  4. Biofuel induced food price increases.
  5. Intermittent electricity supplies.
  6. Increased export of manufacturing to other countries (i.e China).
  7. Reduced jobs as business costs increase.
Of course, if the models have no basis in reality and Anthropogenic Global Warming Catastrophism is an artefact of modelling - then the above outcomes can be avoided by pretty much doing nothing.
Lupe (Icon)) 
      24 x 24 Pixel Buch (Icon) 
      50 x 50 Pixel Estimated Range of Global Average Temperature Fluctuations between 1990 and 2100
      411 x 397 Pixel

de Zwei Fragen:

  1. Wurden die früheren Temperaturschwankungen vom Kohlendioxyd (CO2) verursacht?
  2. Warum sollte das heute und in der Zukunft anders sein?

en Two questions:

  1. Were the temperature variations in the past caused by carbon dioxide?
  2. Why should this be different today and in the future?

fr Deux questions:

  1. Est-ce que les variations de la température dans le passé étaient causées par le dioxyde de carbone?
  2. Pourquoi cela devrait être différent aujourd'hui et à l'avenir?

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b) Die Abkühlung zeigt den IPCC-Irrtum: Es ist nicht das CO2!
en The cooling shows the IPCC eror: It is not the CO2!
fr Le refroisissemen montre l'erreur du GIEC: Ce n'est pas le CO2!

Lupe (Icon)) 
      24 x 24 Pixel Buch (Icon) 
      50 x 50 Pixel World Temperatures Falling Whist CO2 Keeps Rising
World Temperatures Falling whilst CO2 keeps rising 
      600 x 450 Pixel

de Wenn das CO2 die Erwärmung erklärt, muss es auch die Abkühlung erklären ... oder es muss eine andere Erklärung gefunden werden, dass nebeneinander liegende kalte und warme Zonen - gleichzeitig - verschiedene Ursachen haben.
en If the CO2 explains the warming, it must also explain the cooling ... or another explanation must be found how neighbor cold and warm sectors may - simultaneously - obey to different causes.
fr Si le CO2 explique le réchauffement, il doit aussi expliquer le refroidissement ... ou bien une autre explication doit être trouvée, signifiant alors que des secteurs voisins, chauds et froids, peuvent - simultanément - obéir à des causes différentes.

Lupe (Icon)) 
      24 x 24 Pixel Buch (Icon) 
      50 x 50 Pixel Temperature: HadCRUT3 (negative→positiv→negative), CO2: Mauna Loa (positive)
1939-2008

Reflections on the correlation between global temperature and atmospheric CO2
      (keine verkleinerung, sonst nicht lesbar)
      880 x 558 Pixel

Lupe (Icon)) 
      24 x 24 Pixel
Mean global surface temperature anomalies (°C), 2001-2008
      960 x 720 Pixel

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c) IPCC-Report 2007: Zeigt keine Abkühlung
en IPCC-Report 2007: Does not show the cooling
fr Rapport GIEC 2007: Ne montre pas le refroidissement

  1. de Temperaturkurven - CRU 2007:
    Die Abkühlung nach 2000 wird auf den Kurven des IPCC nicht gezeigt!

    en Temperatures - CRU 2007:
    The Cooling after 2000 is not showed on the IPCC diagrams!

    fr Températures - CRU 2007:
    Le refroidissement après 2000 n'est pas montré sur les diagrammes du GIEC!

    Combined global land and marine surface temperature 
      record from 1850 to 2006 
      600 x 284 Pixel

    • de Deutliche Abkühlung nach 2000.
      Diese Abkühlung kann mit dem CO2-Treibhauseffekt nicht erklärt werden.

      en Visible cooling after 2000.
      This cooling cannot be caused by the CO2 Greenhouse Effect.

      fr Refroidissement apparente après 2000.
      Ce refroidissement ne peut pas être expliqué avec l'effet de serre.

    Quelle: / Source:

  2. de IPCC Bericht 2007 zeigt keine Abkühlung nach 2000

    en IPCC Report 2007 doesn't show the cooling after 2000

    fr Rapport 2007 du GIEC ne montre pas le refroidissement après 2000

    Lupe (Icon)) 
      24 x 24 Pixel
    IPCC Temperatures IPCC/WG1 Fig. SPM 4 
      record from 1850 to 2006 
      1'280 x 1'116 Pixel

    • de Temperaturkurven - IPCC Rapport 2007:
      Abkühlung nach 2000 wird nicht gezeigt!
      Das IPCC kann diese Abkühlung nicht erklären.
      Das IPCC irrt sich mit seiner Politik.

      en Temperatures - IPCC Report 2007:
      Cooling after 2000 is not showed!
      IPCC cannot explain this cooling.
      IPCC has to change his policy.

      fr Températures - rapport GIEC 2007:
      Le refroidissement après 2000 n'est pas montré!
      Le GIEC n'a pas d'explication pour ce refroidissement.
      Le GIEC doit modifier sa politique.
  3. de IPCC Temperatur Prognosen

    en IPCC Temperature Prognnostics

    fr Prévisions des températures du GIEC

IPCC Temperatur Prognosem IPCC/WG1 Fig. 10.4 
      record from 1850 to 2006 
      verkleinert 1'280 x 870 Pixel

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d) CO2-Ausstoß erreicht Rekordwerte während die Globaltemperatur fällt

Lupe (Icon)) 
      24 x 24 Pixel Buch (Icon) 
      50 x 50 Pixel Temperaturtrend seit 2001
temp_2001_2001
      638 x 480

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e) Brief an Dr. Pachauri, IPCC (2008-04-14)
en Letter to Dr. Pachauri, IPCC
fr Lettre adressée à Dr. Pachauri, GIEC

Dear Dr. Pachauri and others associated with IPCC

We are writing to you and others associated with the IPCC position

- that man's CO2 is a driver of global warming and climate change

- to ask that you now in view of the evidence retract support from the current IPCC position

and admit that there is no observational evidence in measured data going back 22,000 years or even millions of years that CO2 levels

(whether from man or nature) have driven or are driving world temperatures or climate change.
...

Lupe (Icon)) 
      24 x 24 Pixel Buch (Icon) 
      50 x 50 Pixel Hadley (CRUT3v) and MSU (Satellite Lower Trop) Temps vs CO2
World Temperatures Falling whilst  keeps rising 
      960 x 720 Pixel

de Das CO2 steigt, die Temperaturen fallen.
Wenn das CO2 die Erwärmung erklärt, muss es auch die Abkühlung erklären ...

en CO2 is rising, the temperatures are falling.
If the CO2 explains the warming, it must also explain the cooling ...

fr Le CO2 monte, les températures baissent.
Si le CO2 explique le réchauffement, il doit aussi expliquer le refroidissement ...

de Wissenschaftler fordern IPCC zu Kurswechsel auf

en UN asked to admit climate change errors

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11 IPCC anerkennt keine Temperaturmessungen der Satelliten
en IPCC does not recognise temperatures from satellites
fr Le GIEC ne reconnaît pas les températures prises par satellites

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12 Anschuldigungen an das IPCC:
Sind die IPCC Rapporte korrumpiert?
en Accusation of the IPCC: Are the IPCC corrupted?
fr Accusations sévères du GIEC: Les rapports du GIRC corrempus?

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Begriffe

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Sind die IPCC Rapporte korrumpiert?
en Are the IPCC Reports corrupted?
fr Les rapport du GIEC sont-ils corrompus?

de IPCC Rapporte - Korruption?

  • "Dieser Report enthält nicht, was die auf der Titelseite des Rapports angegebenen Wissenschaftler angenommen haben."

  • "Mindestens 15 Schlüssel-Abschnitte wurden gestrichen", wie zum Beispiel:

  • "Keiner der obenerwähnten Studien zeigt einen klaren Beweis, dass der Klimawandel der Erhöhung der Treibhausgase zugeordnet werden kann."

  • "Die Änderungen seien auf die Antwort von Regierungen, individuellen Wissenschaftlerrn und NGO's vorgenommen worden."

en IPCC Reports - Corruption?

  • "This report is not what was approved by the contributing scientists listed on the title page."

  • "At least 15 key sections have been deleted." These include statements as:

  • "None of the studies cited above has shown clear evidence that we can attribute the observed [climate] changes to the specific cause of increases in greenhouse gases".

  • "No study to date has positively attributed all or part of the climate change observed to date to anthropogenic [manmade] causes."

  • Professor Seitz concluded:
    "I have never witnessed a more disturbing corruption of peer-review process than the events that led to this IPCC report."

  • "In his reply IPCC did not deny making these deletions but stated:
    There has been no dishonesty, no corruption of the peer-review process and no bias and that uncertainties have not been suppressed."

  • "Changes were in response to comments from governments, individual scientifists and non-governmental organizations."

fr Rapports du GIEC - Corrompu?

  • "Ce n'est pas la version qui a été approuvée par les scientifiques participants listés en première page."

  • "Au moins 15 parties de la section science ont été supprimées", comprenant des sections comme:

  • "Aucune des études citées ci-dessus n'a montré de preuve claire que nous pouvons attribuer les changement climatiques observée à la cause spécifique de l'augmentation des gaz à effet de serre."

  • "Aucune étude à ce jour n'a attribué de manière positive, tout ou une partie des changements climatiques observés aux causes humaines."

  • La conclusion de Professeur Seitz:
    "Je n'ai jamais été témoins d'une corruption plus dérangeante du processus de relecture par des pairs que dans ce rapport du GIEC."

  • "Dans sa réponse, le GIEC n'a pas nié avoir fait ces suppressions mais il disait qu'il n'y avait pas de malhonnêteté ou biais dans le rapport et que les incertitudes sur les causes du réchauffement global ont été incluses."

  • "Les changements ont été faits, dit le GIEC, en réponse aux commentaires venant des gouvernements, des scientifiques individuels et des ONG."

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Vincent Gray

Vincent Gray
Vincent Gray
      (150 x 179 Pixel)
Dr., M.A.,Ph.D., F.N.Z.I.C., Climate Consultant, Wellington, Neuseeland
Ist das IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) korrumpiert?
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Spinning the Climate
Consensus ? Vous avez dit consensus ? Même au sein du GIEC, il n'existe pas !

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Yury Izrael

Yury Izrael
AYury Izrael
      (170 x 186 Pixel)
Directeur de l'Institut de l'Ecologie et du Climat du Globe de l'Académie des Sciences Russe
Vice-President of IPCC (Vice-Président du GIEC)

Der Zusammenhang zwischen menschlicher Aktivität und globaler Erwärmung ist nicht erwiesen.
en There is no proven link between human activity and global warming
fr Le lien entre l'activité humaine et le réchauffement global n'est pas prouvé

IPCC Vice Präsident: G8 Papiere 23.6.2005
Klimaveränderung ist keine globale Bedrohung
"There is no proven link between human activity and global warming".
Es gibt keinen definitiven Beweis für einen Zusammenhang zwischen menschlichem Handeln und der globalen Erwärmung"

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Paul Reiter

Paul Reiter
Paul Reiter
      (143 x 142 Pixel)
Professor of medical entomology at the Pasteur Institute in Paris, France.
He is a member of the World Health Organization Expert Advisory Committee on Vector Biology and Control.
He was an employee of the Center for Disease Control (Dengue Branch) for 22 years. He is a Fellow of the Royal Entomological Society.
He is a specialist in mosquito-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue fever.

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13 Fehler der Aktivisten der "Klima-Rettung"
en Errors of the "Climate-Rescue" Activists
fr Erreurs des activistes qui veulent "sauver le climat"

Lupe (Icon)) 
      24 x 24 Pixel Adobe PDF Dokument (Icon) 
      32 x 32 Pixel Buch (Icon) 
      50 x 50 Pixel
Oeko, Quo Vadis
      580 x 351 Pixel

Bitte beachten / Please consider / Veuillez prendre note
de Internet-Terror : Manipulation von Wikipedia durch einen Administrator.
en At Wikipedia, one man engineers the debate on global warming.
fr A Wikipedia, un homme dirige le débat sur le réchauffement climatique et à sa manière.

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14 Kurzschluss der Wissenschaft
en Short circuiting the scientific method
fr Court-circuit de la méthode scientifique

en There has been a development over the last 10-15 years or so in the scientific peer reviewed literature that is short circuiting the scientific method.

Steps of the Scientific Method

  1. Ask a Question
  2. Do Background Research
  3. Construct a Hypothesis
  4. Test Your Hypothesis by Doing an Experiment
  5. Analyze Your Data and Draw a Conclusion
  6. Communicate Your Results

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15 Vorsorge nicht zu jedem Preis
en Precautionary principle
fr Principe de précaution