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⬆3. 5. 7 Prognosen und deren Probleme

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3.5.7 Klima-Modelle
en Climate Models
fr Modèles du réchauffement climatique

  Probleme / Problems / Problèmes
 ⇨  Klimaschwindel Klima-Panik IPCC/GIEC Fehler I  Fehler II Kritik
    Klima-Modelle Prognosen Manipulation GEO‑Engineering Glaube & Hysterie
 ⇨  Klima: Wandel Politik Fragen Wissenschaft Probleme Beurteilung Diskurse Auswirkungen
 ⇩  Klima-Skandal: Manipulation Realität Angst
 ⇩  Neue Kälteperiode: Kaltzeit Auswirkung
    ⬆ Länder   ⬇ Energie

 ⇨  Einführung Kontroverse Verstehen Aktuell / Updates
 ⇨  Temperatur der Erde Beobachtungen Klima Geschichte Klima Berichte
 ⇨  Ursachen des Wandels Einflüsse Sonneneinfluss Standpunkte

 ⇨  Wissenschaft Treibhauseffekt Geschwindigkeit Kipp‑Punkte vs Zyklen
 ⇨  Probleme Fehler I II / Kritik Manipulation Skandal / Hysterie

 ⇨  Beurteilung Diskussionen IPCC/GIEC Modelle / Prognosen
 ⇨  Klimaschutz Schuld Konsens Nachhaltig / Vorsorge

 ⇨  Auswirkungen Zahlen & Fakten Klimapolitik: Themen Klimapolitik: Länder
 ⇨  Neue Kälteperiode Kälte: Warnung Who is who Webseiten & Videos

Mit folgenden Links wird von anderen Webseiten auf diese Seite verwiesen:

 

de Aus der Panik-Küche en From the panic laboratory fr De la marmite des alarmistes

►Falsche Klima-Modelle

▶Falsche Prognosen

▶Hiobs-Prognosen

▶Klimaflüchtlinge

▶IPCC-Szenarien, Prognosen oder Science Fiction?

▶Tropen: Falsche Resultate der Panik‑-Modelle

▶Panik-Modelle können die Zunahme des antarktischen Meereises nicht erklären

▶Der fehlende Hotspot (warme Zone)

▶ Alarmisten-Prognose 2008: "Erderwärmung macht zehn Jahre Pause"

▶Klimaerwärmung auch wenn es kälter wird

▶Das CO2 steigt und die Temperaturen fallen

de Beurteilen Sie selbst!   en Judge yourself!   fr Jugez vous-même!

▶Voraussagen einer neuen Kälteperiode

▶Erwärmung: Entwarnung

▶Kälte: Warnungen

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Climate Models
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How reliable are the climate models?

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Factor Understood?   Contribution to models’ predicted future warming
ENSO No 0%
Ocean Oscillations No 0%
Ocean Currents No 0%
Volcanoes No 0%
Wind No 0%
Water Cycle Partly (built into Water Vapour, below)
The Sun No 0%
Galactic Cosmic Rays (and aerosols) No 0%
Milankovich cycles No 0%
Carbon Dioxide Yes 37%
Water Vapour Partly 22% but suspect
Clouds No 41%, all highly suspect
Other 0%
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(Vorsitzender der Arbeitsgruppe III des Weltklimarats IPCC):
Die Besitzer von Kohle, Öl und Gasvorkommen müssen enteignet werden.
IPCC Realität
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Wann werden Klimaforscher zugeben, dass sie sich geirrt haben?
en When Will Climate Scientists Say They Were Wrong?

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A Allgemein
en Geneal
fr Générale

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1 Climatology and Paleoclimatology Resources
en Climate models and modeling groups

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2 Wie funktionieren die Klimamodelle?
en How models are working?
fr Comment Fonctionnent les Modèles du Climat?

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3 Prognoseleistung von Klimamodellen auf dem Prüfstand: Mehr als die Hälfte der Erde hält sich nicht an die Vorhersagen

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B Fehler der IPCC-Klimamodelle
en Errors of the IPCC Climate Models
fr Erreurs des modèles sur le climat du GIEC

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1 Allgemein / General / Générale

Die "Anthropogene Globale Erwärmung" basiert hauptsächlich auf dem CO2-Treibhauseffekt und gibt dem Menschen die Hauptschuld am Klimawandel.

Neue Forschungen werden von den Verfechtern der Anthropogenen Globalen Erwärmungnicht berücksichtigt, denn dadurch würde deren ganze Theorie zusammenbrechen.

Die Auswirkungen dieser Politik sind enorm.

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2 The Global Warming Hypothesis and Ocean Heat

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3 Why we cannot trust the IPCC Climate Models for Global Warming Predictions

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4 Scientists Issue Unprecedented Forecast of Next Sunspot Cycle

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5 Peinlicher Fehler im Klimamodell

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6 Fatal Errors in IPCC'S Global Climate Models

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7 Fehler der IPCC-Klimamodelle
Erwärmung viel geringer und ohne gravierende Konsequenzen

Es gibt viele wissenschaftliche Stimmen, die aus Messungen und Beobachtungen ableiten, dass die Erwärmung viel geringer und ohne gravierende Konsequenzen sein wird und das IPCC irrt.
Ihre Argumentation ist die folgende:

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C Fundamental falsche Modelle
en Fundamentally wrong models
fr Modèles eronnées

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1 en Satellite and Climate Model Evidence Against Substantial Manmade Climate Change

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2 en How many IPCC scientists fabricate and falsify research [In Climate Models]

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3 en 7 years' global cooling at 3.6°F (2°C)/century

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7 years' global cooling
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4 Climate Models vs Climate Reality

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Model Ensembles and HadCRUT
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Who would like to bet the following outcomes on the models being correct.

  1. Higher taxes.
  2. Increased energy costs.
  3. Greater Government control.
  4. Biofuel induced food price increases.
  5. Intermittent electricity supplies.
  6. Increased export of manufacturing to other countries (i.e China).
  7. Reduced jobs as business costs increase.

Of course, if the models have no basis in reality and Anthropogenic Global Warming Catastrophism is an artefact of modelling - then the above outcomes can be avoided by pretty much doing nothing.

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5 Mittelmeer steigt um bis zu 61 Zentimeter

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6 Meeresspiegelanstieg bedroht New York City

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7 Climate model forecasts dramatic changes in U.S.

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8 Antarctic temperatures disagree with climate model predictions

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9 Concerns About Climate Model Reliability

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10 UBA: Peinlicher Fehler im Klimamodell

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11 UN IPCC Scientist Richard Courtney: Climate models "fundamentally wrong"

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12 en Climate Model Deficiencies in IPCC AR4 PSB
Climate Model Deficiencies in IPCC AR4 PSB
Chapter Section Page Quotation
6 6.5.1.3 462 "Current spatial coverage, temporal resolution and age control of available Holocene proxy data limit the ability to determine if there were multi-decadal periods of global warmth comparable to he last half of the 20th century."
6 6.7 483 "Knowledge of climate variability over the last 1 to 2 kyr in the SH and tropics is severely limited by the lack of paleoclimatic records. In the NH, the situation is better, but there are important limitations due to a lack of tropical records and ocean records. Differing amplitudes and variability observed in available millennial-length NH temperature reconstructions, and the extent to which these differences relate to choice of proxy data and statistical calibration methods, need to be reconciled. Similarly, the understanding of how climatic extremes (i.e., in temperature and hydro-climatic variables) varied in the past is incomplete. Lastly, this assessment would be improved with extensive networks of proxy data that run up to the present day. This would help measure how the proxies responded to the rapid global warming observed in the last 20 years, and it would also improve the ability to investigate the extent to which other, non-temperature, environmental changes may have biased the climate response of proxies in recent decades."
8 Executive Summary 591 "The possibility that metrics based on observations might be used to constrain model projections of climate change has been explored for the first time, through the analysis of ensembles of model simulations. Nevertheless, a proven set of model metrics that might be used to narrow the range of plausible climate projections has yet to be developed."
8 Executive Summary 593 “ Recent studies reaffirm that the spread of climate sensitivity estimates among models arises primarily from inter-model differences in cloud feedbacks. The shortwave impact of changes in boundary-layer clouds, and to a lesser extent mid-level clouds, constitutes the largest contributor to inter-model differences in global cloud feedbacks. The relatively poor simulation of these clouds in the present climate is a reason for some concern. The response to global warming of deep convective clouds is also a substantial source of uncertainty in projections since current models predict different responses of these clouds. Observationally based evaluation of cloud feedbacks indicates that climate models exhibit different strengths and weaknesses, and it is not yet possible to determine which estimates of the climate change cloud feedbacks are the most reliable.”
8 8.1.2.2 594 “What does the accuracy of a climate model’s simulation of past or contemporary climate say about the accuracy of its projections of climate change” This question is just beginning to be addressed, exploiting the newly available ensembles of models.”
8 8.1.2.2 595 “The above studies show promise that quantitative metrics for the likelihood of model projections may be developed, but because the development of robust metrics is still at an early stage, the model evaluations presented in this chapter are based primarily on experience and physical reasoning, as has been the norm in the past.”
8 8.3 608 “Consequently, for models to predict future climatic conditions reliably, they must simulate the current climatic state with some as yet unknown degree of fidelity.”
8 8.6.3.2.3 638 “Although the errors in the simulation of the different cloud types may eventually compensate and lead to a prediction of the mean CRF in agreement with observations (see Section 8.3), they cast doubts on the reliability of the model cloud feedbacks.”
8 8.6.3.2.3 638 “Modelling assumptions controlling the cloud water phase (liquid, ice or mixed) are known to be critical for the prediction of climate sensitivity. However, the evaluation of these assumptions is just beginning (Doutraix-Boucher and Quaas, 2004; Naud et al., 2006).
8 8.6.4 640 “A number of diagnostic tests have been proposed since the TAR (see Section 8.6.3), but few of them have been applied to a majority of the models currently in use. Moreover, it is not yet clear which tests are critical for constraining future projections. Consequently, a set of model metrics that might be used to narrow the range of plausible climate change feedbacks and climate sensitivity has yet to be developed.”
9 Executive Summary 665 “Difficulties remain in attributing temperature changes on smaller than continental scales and over time scales of less than 50 years. Attribution at these scales, with limited exceptions, has not yet been established.”
10 10.1 754 “Since the ensemble is strictly an ‘ensemble of opportunity’, without sampling protocol, the spread of models does not necessarily span the full possible range of uncertainty, and a statistical interpretation of the model spread is therefore problematic.”
10 10.5.4.2 805 “The AOGCMs featured in Section 10.5.2 are built by selecting components from a pool of alternative parameterizations, each based on a given set of physical assumptions and including a number of uncertain parameters.”

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13 Klima-Burnout / Klima-Modelle

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14 Neue AWI-Forschung bestätigt: Klimamodelle können die Temperaturen der letzten 6000 Jahre nicht reproduzieren
en New AWI Research Confirms: Climate Models Cannot Reproduce Temperatures Of The Last 6000 Years

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en

Quelle / Source:

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15 Zwei Jahre umsonst gerechnet: Schade um die verlorene Rechenzeit

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16 Klimamodelle und Temperaturrekonstruktionen wollen einfach nicht zusammenpassen: Neue Studie vom Hamburger Max-Planck Institut für Meteorologie

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17 Temperatur-Prognosen der Klima-Modelle: Bis heute für alle Atmosphären-Schichten falsch !
en German Meteorologist On Temperature Models: "So Far They Are Wrong For ALL Atmospheric Layers!"

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18 Klimamodelle können die Zunahme des antarktischen Meereises nicht nachvollziehen
en Antarctic sea ice reaches record high while IPCC models predicted the opposite

Quelle / Source;

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19 Klimamodelle kriegen die Ozeanzyklen nicht in den Griff
en Antarctic sea ice reaches record high while IPCC models predicted the opposite

Quelle / Source;

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20 en New model says more snow at poles, less elsewhere due to CO2

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21 de Klimamodell der neuesten Generation versagt bei der Temperaturberechnung Skandinaviens für die letzten 80 Jahre

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22 Grandioses Scheitern des kanadischen Klimamodells
en Epic Failure of the Canadian Climate Model

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23 en Climate models - worse than we thought

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24 Eine weitere Unsicherheit für Klimamodelle - gleiche Modelle liefern unterschiedliche Ergebnisse, wenn auf unterschiedlichen Computern gerechnet
en Another uncertainty for climate models - different results on different computers using the same code

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25 Neue AWI-Studie warnt: Klimamodelle unterschätzen natürliche Schwankungen der Meeresoberflächentemperaturen um den Faktor 50

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26 Modelle können Zunahme des antarktischen Meereises nicht reproduzieren

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27 Klimamodelle rekonstruieren Niederschlagsentwicklungen nur mit gröbsten Fehlern

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28 Pyrenäen-Studie kritisiert Klimamodellierungen: Simulationen unterschätzen vorindustrielle Wärme signifikant