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⬆3. 5. 10 Prognosen

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3.5.10 Prognosen
en Predictions
fr Prédictions

  Probleme / Problems / Problèmes
 ⇨  Klimaschwindel Klima-Panik UNEP/UNFCCC IPCC/GIEC Fehler I
    Fehler II Kritik Klima-Modelle Prognosen Manipulation
 ⇨  Klima: Wandel Fragen Wissenschaft Probleme Politik Beurteilung Diskurse Auswirkungen
 ⇩  Klima-Skandal: Manipulation Realität Angst
 ⇩  Neue Kälteperiode: Kaltzeit Auswirkung
    ⬆ Länder   ⬇ Energie

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▶Prognosen

Links zur Klimaschau

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Welt-Info

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      552 x 598 Pixel Prognosen / Predictions / Prédictions
Video (Icon)
      50 x 50 Pixel ▶Klimaschau   ▷Klimaschau‑Videokanal
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      128 x 128 Pixel ▶Prognosen Voraussagen einer neuen Kälteperiode
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▷Die Kalte Sonne Blog‑Themen Vahrenholt/Lüning ▶Kalte Sonne  de ▷Modelle und Vorhersagen
EIKE de Suchergebnisse für Prognosen, Suchergebnisse für Szenarien
Wikipedia
Bitte beachten / Please consider / Veuillez prendre note
▶Manipulation von Wikipedia
Bitte beachten / Please consider / Veuillez prendre note
de

Internet-Terror: Manipulation von Wikipedia durch einen Administrator

en

At Wikipedia, one man engineers the debate on global warmingator

fr

A Wikipedia, un homme dirige le débat sur le réchauffement climatique et à sa manière

Vademecum ▶Prognosen
▶Welt-Info
Siehe auch: ►Klima-Modelle

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de Allgemein en General fr Générale



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de Text en Text fr Texte

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A Prognosen-Probleme
en Prediction Problems
fr Probèmes avec les prédictions

de Verzeichnis en Contents fr Sommaire

 


de Text en Text fr Texte

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2019

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Warum Wolken der Fluch aller Klimaforscher sind
Hamburger Max-Planck-Forscher Stevens: "Unsere Computer sagen nicht einmal mit Sicherheit voraus, ob die Gletscher in den Alpen zu- oder abnehmen werden"

Kommentar und weitere Auszüge:

Weiter (Icon)
      128 x 128 Pixel

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Klimawandel-Modelle sind Ramsch

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2015

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Die Problematik der Klima-Prognosen

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Sieben grandiose Fehlprognosen von Umweltaktivisten

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2014

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Prognose oder Szenario ?

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B Fehlprognosen von Umweltaktivisten
en Failed Environmentalist Predictions
en Prédictions éronnées

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1 Sieben grandiose Fehlprognosen von Umweltaktivistenn
en Seven Big Failed Environmentalist Predictions

Quelle / Source:

 

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2 25 Jahre Vorhersage eines 'Kipp-Punktes' bzgl. der globalen Erwärmung
en 25 Years Of Predicting The Global Warming 'Tipping Point'

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3 Einige grandios gescheiterte Klima-Prophezeiungen
en Some Failed Climate Predictions

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C Falsche Prognosen mit den Computer-Modellen
en Big Failed Environmentalist Predictions

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1 Climate forecasts have serious methodological errors, little connection with reality

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2 The big list of failed climate predictions

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3 The Greenhouse Gamble

de Aus der Panik-Küche en From the panic laboratory fr De la marmite des alarmistes

Lupe (Icon)) 
      24 x 24 Pixel Buch (Icon) 
      50 x 50 Pixel Buch (Icon) 
      50 x 50 Pixel The Greenhouse Gamble:
Ronald Prinn, director of MIT's Center for Global Change Science, and his group have revised their model that shows how much hotter the Earth's climate will get in this century without substantial policy change
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      485 x 322 Pixel

de

en

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D Falsche und immer wieder korrigierte Szenarien und Prognosen des IPCC

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1 IPCC im Jahr 2007: "Es bleiben vielleicht nur noch acht Jahre bis zur Klimakatastrophe"
en UN scientists warn time is running out to tackle global warming

Quellen / Sources:

Pfeil nach rechts (Icon)
      120 x 120 Pixel Kohlekraftwerke in China

Pfeil nach rechts (Icon)
      120 x 120 Pixel Indische Kohlekraftwerke

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      120 x 120 Pixel USA: Kohle und Kohlekraftwerke

Pfeil nach rechts (Icon)
      120 x 120 Pixel de Die Vereinigten Staaten sind das "Saudi Arabien" der Kohle
Pfeil nach rechts (Icon)
      120 x 120 Pixel en America is the "Saudi Arabia" of Coal
Pfeil nach rechts (Icon)
      120 x 120 Pixel fr Les Étas Unis sont "l'Arabie Saoudite" du charbon

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2 Panik-Angaben des IPCC werden immer kleiner

"Anthropogener" Meeresspiegelanstieg - Vom Konstrukt zur Panik?

Die IPCCPrognosen passen sich mehr und mehr der Realität von ca. 20 cm/Jahrhundert an.

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      24 x 24 Pixel Buch (Icon) 
      50 x 50 Pixel Adobe PDF Dokument (Icon) 
      32 x 32 Pixel Abb. 10. Prognosen des IPCC zum Meeresspiegelanstieg im 21. Jahrhundert Abb. 10. Prognosen des IPCC zum Meeresspiegelanstieg im 21. Jahrhundert
      492 x 353 Pixel

Aussage betreffend Anstieg des Meeresspiegels:

Globale Erwärmung

Prognosen des IPCC
      310 x 166 Pixel

Erwärmung und Anstieg der Meere

Year of Forecast

Rate of Warming

 Greenhouse Effect by 2030
   

 Temperature Rise

  Sea Level Rise

 1988

 0.8 C per decade

 3.0 C

 20 to 150 cm

 1990

 0.3 C per decade

 1.2 C

  15 to 40 cm

 1995

 0.2 C per decade

  0.8 C

  5 to 35 cm
Source: Dr. Brian O'Brien, October 1997

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3 Falsche Prognosen des IPCC:
Das CO2 steigt und die Temperaturen fallen
en CO2 is rising and the temperatures are falling
fr Le CO2 monte et les températures baissent

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E Falsche Prognosen der Warmisten
en Wrong prognostics of the Warmist Gurus
fr Fausses prévisions des gurus réchauffistes

 

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1 Was ist eigentlich aus James Hansens Temperaturvorhersagen geworden?
en James Hansen's climate forecasta of 1988: a whopping 150% wrong

1986

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WASHINGTON, June 10 1986

The rise in carbon dioxide and other gases in the earth's atmosphere will have an earlier and more pronounced impact on global temperature and climate than previously expected, according to evidence presented to a Senate subcommittee today.

Scientists and senators at a hearing by the Environmental Pollution Subcommittee agreed that the dangers of manmade changes in the atmosphere had moved from hypothesis to imminent reality and must be addressed quickly.

They said the rise in temperatures was expected to cause profound climatic changes and raise sea levels substantially.

Witnesses at the hearing also testified that the ozone layer of the upper atmosphere, which protects the earth from the sun's ultraviolet light, is being rapidly depleted by manmade gases, and the increased ultraviolet radiation would result in a rise in skin cancer cases and other ecological damage.

Dr. James E. Hansen of the Goddard Space Flight Center's Institute for Space Studies said research by his institute showed that because of the ''greenhouse effect'' that results when gases prevent heat from escaping the earth's atmosphere, global temperatures would rise early in the next century to ''well above any level experienced in the past 100,000 years.'' Steeper Rise in Next Century

Average global temperatures would rise by one-half a degree to one degree Fahrenheit from 1990 to 2000 if current trends are unchanged, according to Dr. Hansen's findings.

Dr. Hansen said the global temperature would rise by another 2 to 4 degrees in the following decade.

While the effect of small increases in global temperature is now unclear, Andrew Maguire, vice president of the World Resources Institute, a Washington research and policy group, said that the doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide that is foreseen would cause a rise of 3 to 8 degrees in temperature by the 2030's.

He said this would devastate agriculture in the United States and elsewhere, and would cause a rise in sea level of some 4.5 feet as polar ice melted.

Earlier projections of warming trends had held that they would not occur before the middle of the next century.

One of the reasons that scientists now expect faster and higher temperature rises is the emerging consensus that gases other than the carbon dioxide emitted by the burning of such fossil fuels as coal are playing a major role in the greenhouse effect.

The greenhouse effect is the name given to the phenomenon created when carbon dioxide, methane, chlorofluorocarbons and other gases accumulate in the atmosphere and prevent radiant heat from the sun that has reached the earth's surface from escaping back into space.

Dr. Hansen and other scientists testifying today said there was now broad consensus among scientists that the greenhouse effect was speeding up the increase in global temperatures. Less Urgency in 1983

In 1983 a report by the National Academy of Sciences said the greenhouse effect was a ''cause for concern,'' but concluded that there was time to prepare for its impact.

The academy report projected a doubling of greenhouse gases by the third quarter of the next century.

Dr. Hansen's research, however, found that if there is no change in the current rate of growth, the greenhouse gases would double by the late 2020's.

A report by the Environmental Protection Agency three years ago said the warming trend could start by the 1990's and could reach as much as 4 degrees Fahrenheit by 2040, but this was attacked by President Reagan's science adviser at the time, George A. Keyworth, as ''unnecessarily alarmist.''

Today, the scientists and the senators on the subcommittee asserted that there must be national and international action now to mitigate and deal with the imminent effects of the atmospheric changes taking place as a result of human activity. Chafee Asks Early Action

Senator John H. Chafee, the Rhode Island Republican who is chairman of the subcommittee, quoted a recent assessment by the Department of Energy, which said, ''Human effects on atmospheric composition and the size and operations of the terrestrial ecosystems may yet overwhelm the life-support system crafted in nature over billions of years.''

Senator Chafee said it would be too risky to wait until all the answers about atmospheric changes were known before taking action.

He called for the Reagan Administration to take up the issue at the next international economic summit meeting and also at the President's next meeting with the Soviet leader, Mikhail S. Gorbachev. While the scientists testified today that it would be some time before there was enough data to pinpoint regional climatic changes, it was considered likely that some of today's most productive agricultural areas would become too arid for farming.

They also testified that a ''hole,'' in which the ozone has been reduced by some 40 percent, has formed in the ozone layer over Antarctica.

While many aerosol uses of chlorofluorocarbons have been banned in this country, their use in other applications is increasing, and they continue to be used in aerosols in other countries.

1988

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      50 x 50 Pixel Temperaturprognose der Hansen-Gruppe aus dem Jahr 1988.
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      449 x 315 Pixel

 

A
de Zunahme der CO2-Emissionen um 1.5% pro Jahr
en Increase of 1.5% CO2 emissions per year

B
de Konstante Zunahme der CO2-Emissionen nach dem Jahr 2000
en Approximate constant increase of CO2 emissions after 2000

C
de Keine Zunahme der CO2-Emissions nach dem Jahr 2000
en No increase in CO2 emissions after the year 2000

Laut der Hansen-Prognose müsste die Temperatur gegenüber dem Vergleichs­niveau in den 1970er Jahren um 1,5°C angestiegen sein.

In Wahrheit hat sich die Temperatur jedoch lediglich um 0,6°C erhöht.

 

Die CO2-Emissionen sind seit dem Jahr 2000 um jährlich etwa 2,5 Prozent angestiegen, so dass wir gemäß dem Hansen-Paper einen Temperatur­anstieg erwarten würden, der stärker als in Modell A ausfallen sollte.

Es ist ersichtlich, dass die von der Hansen-Gruppe 1988 modellierte Temperatur­vorhersage um etwa 150% danebenliegt.

Es ist überaus bedauerlich, dass genau diese Art von Modellierungen von unseren Politikern noch immer als verlässliche Klimavorhersage angesehen wird.

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2 Prognosen von Professor Graßl

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3 Prognosen des Potsdam Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK)

How reliable are the climate models?

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      24 x 24 Pixel Buch (Icon) 
      50 x 50 Pixel IPCC Climate Models
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      450 x 306 Pixel

Factor Understood?   Contribution to models’ predicted future warming
ENSO No 0%
Ocean Oscillations No 0%
Ocean Currents No 0%
Volcanoes No 0%
Wind No 0%
Water Cycle Partly (built into Water Vapour, below)
The Sun No 0%
Galactic Cosmic Rays (and aerosols) No 0%
Milankovich cycles No 0%
Carbon Dioxide Yes 37%
Water Vapour Partly 22% but suspect
Clouds No 41%, all highly suspect
Other 0%
Lupe (Icon)) 
      24 x 24 Pixel Buch (Icon) 
      50 x 50 Pixel PIK Vizechef Edenhofer
(Vorsitzender der Arbeitsgruppe III des Weltklimarats IPCC):
Die Besitzer von Kohle, Öl und Gasvorkommen müssen enteignet werden.
IPCC Realität
      531 x 400 Pixel

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4 Prognosen von Professor Mojib Latif

1990 - 2009

Prof. Latif 1997

Im Jahre 1997 hat der Klimaforscher Mojib Latif in den Sendungen ZDF Hallo Deutschland und DAS! (NDR) Prognosen zu den Wintern der kommenden Jahre abgegeben.

Die Prognosen lauteten folgendermaßen:

"Gemittelt über die nächsten 20 Jahre gehen wir davon aus, dass es eher kälter sein wird."

"Diese Situation (die Nordatlantische Oszillation) hat sich jetzt umgestellt, so dass das Russlandhoch die Überhand über unser Klima gewinnen wird. So das wir davon ausgehen, dass wir innerhalb der nächsten 10 bis 20 Jahre eher mit kühleren Wintern zu rechnen haben."

"Die Nordatlantische Oszillation hat sich in den letzten Jahren umgestellt und wir sind jetzt in einer Phase relativ schwacher Nordatlantischer Oszillation und wir erwarten ähnlich wie in den 60er Jahren relativ kalte Winter in der Zukunft."

Zur globalen Erwärmung sagte er im Jahre 1997

"Daher haben wir es zunächst einmal vor allem mit den natürlichen Klimaschwankungen zu tun, während wir erst in etwa 100 Jahren dann die globale Erwärmung zu spüren bekommen."

Prof. Latif 2000

Prof. Latif 2003

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Latif warm
      608 x 283 Pixel

Prof. Latif 2004

Prof. Latif 2008

Prof. Latif 2009

Prof. Latif 2010

Kommentar von Andreas Kreuzmann (Klimaskeptiker.info):

Prof. Latif 2012

Prof. Latif 2015

Man hat aus der Pleite gelernt

Nur noch 15 Jahre bleiben nach ihrer Ansicht, um den Klimawandel in den Griff zu bekommen. "Wenn der weltweite Kohlendioxidausstoß 2030 immer noch steigt, wird es zu spät sein", sagt der Klimaforscher Mojib Latif vom Kieler Helmholtz-Zentrum für Ozeanforschung.

Es ist das erste Mal, dass Latif sich öffentlich so konkret festlegt.

Quellen / Sources:

Pfeil nach rechts (Icon)
      120 x 120 Pixel Kohlekraftwerke in China

Pfeil nach rechts (Icon)
      120 x 120 Pixel Indische Kohlekraftwerke

Pfeil nach rechts (Icon)
      120 x 120 Pixel USA: Kohle und Kohlekraftwerke

Pfeil nach rechts (Icon)
      120 x 120 Pixel de Die Vereinigten Staaten sind das "Saudi Arabien" der Kohle
Pfeil nach rechts (Icon)
      120 x 120 Pixel en America is the "Saudi Arabia" of Coal
Pfeil nach rechts (Icon)
      120 x 120 Pixel fr Les Étas Unis sont "l'Arabie Saoudite" du charbon

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5 Prognosen von UK Met Office

de Flop des UK Met Office 2007: "Bis 2014 wird es um 0,3°C wärmer"
en Smith et al (2007): 0.3°C in 10 years

Quellen / Sources:

en Met Office Global Forecasts Too Warm In 13 Of Last 14 Years

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6 15 Years Since The UN Declared The North Pole To Be Ice-Free

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      663 x 396 Pixel

Quellen / Sources:

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7 Gore: Polar ice cap may disappear by summer 2014

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8 John Holdren - Obamas Wissenschaftsberater

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Eine Milliarde CO2-Todesfälle durch Hungersnot bevor 2020

Mehrere prominente Wissenschaftler, haben für die letzten 4 Jahrzehnte eine Katastrophe vorausgesagt, wenn wir fossile Brennstoffe weiterhin nutzen.

Im Jahr 1985 sagte Obamas Wissenschaftsberater John Holdren voraus, dass wir jetzt, nahe an einer Milliarde CO2-Todesfälle durch Hungersnot seien, bevor wir 2020 erreichen.

Google (Logo)
      150 x 50 Pixel Fenster (Icon>) 
      100 x 100 Pixel

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9 Weitere Prognosen

Top 10 FAILED Global Warming Predictions

ABC News: 2008 prediction about climate in 2015 .. what a gaffe!

de Im Jahr 2008 strahlte der US-amerikanische Sender abcnews eine Sendung zur Klimagefahr aus.

Die wichtigste Nachricht: Schon sieben Jahre später, 2015, würde das Klima verrückt spielen und sich die Klimakatastrophen häufen.

Alles falsch, wie wir heute wissen.

Ungeachtet dieses Fehlschlags werden auch auch heute noch ähnliche Filme produziert.

Wenn dann das Prognosejahr erreicht ist, wird sich eh niemand mehr an die verrückten Schauergeschichten erinnern.

Quellle Source

Nine Years Since The New York Times Announced The End Of Winter

Pentagon Says Europe Will Drown In The Next Four Years

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F Keine wissenschaftlich fundierten Vorhersagen der Globalen Erwärmung
en No Scientific Forecasts to Support Global Warming
fr Pas de prognostiques scientifiques pour le réchauffement climatique

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1 de Zweifelhafte wissenschaftliche Methoden bei Klima-Voraussagen

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2 en No Scientific Forecasts to Support Global Warming

Drs. J. Scott Armstrong and Kesten C. Green were asked by US Senator Inhofe for an analysis of the EPA's proposed policies for greenhouse gases

EPA = U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

  1. No scientific forecasts of the changes in the Earth's climate.

    Currently, the only forecasts are those based on the opinions of some scientists. Computer modeling was used to create scenarios (i.e., stories) to represent the scientists' opinions about what might happen.

    The models were not intended as forecasting models (Trenberth 2007) and they have not been validated for that purpose.

    Since the publication of our paper, no one has provided evidence to refute our claim that there are no scientific forecasts to support global warming.

    We conducted an audit of the procedures described in the IPCC report and found that they clearly violated 72 scientific principles of forecasting (Green and Armstrong 2008). (No justification was provided for any of these violations.)

    For important forecasts, we can see no reason why any principle should be violated. We draw analogies to flying an aircraft or building a bridge or performing heart surgery-given the potential cost of errors, it is not permissible to violate principles.

  2. Improper peer review process.

    To our knowledge, papers claiming to forecast global warming have not been subject to peer review by experts in scientific forecasting.

  3. Complexity and uncertainty of climate render expert opinions invalid for forecasting.

    Expert opinions are an inappropriate forecasting method in situations that involve high complexity and high uncertainty.

    This conclusion is based on over eight decades of research.

    Armstrong (1978) provided a review of the evidence and this was supported by Tetlock's (2005) study that involved 82,361 forecasts by 284 experts over two decades.

    Long-term climate changes are highly complex due to the many factors that affect climate and to their interactions.

    Uncertainty about long-term climate changes is high due to a lack of good knowledge about such things as:

    1. causes of climate change,
    2. direction, lag time, and effect size of causal factors related to climate change,
    3. effects of changing temperatures, and
    4. costs and benefits of alternative actions to deal with climate changes (e.g., CO2 markets).

    Given these conditions, expert opinions are not appropriate for long-term climate predictions.

  4. Forecasts are needed for the effects of climate change.

    Even if it were possible to forecast climate changes, it would still be necessary to forecast the effects of climate changes.

    In other words, in what ways might the effects be beneficial or harmful?

    Here again, we have been unable to find any scientific forecasts-as opposed to speculation-despite our appeals for such studies.

    We addressed this issue with respect to studies involving the possible classification of polar bears as threatened or endangered (Armstrong, Green, and Soon 2008).

    In our audits of two key papers to support the polar bear listing, 41 principles were clearly violated by the authors of one paper and 61 by the authors of the other.

    It is not proper from a scientific or from a practical viewpoint to violate any principles.

    Again, there was no sign that the forecasters realized that they were making mistakes.

  5. Forecasts are needed of the costs and benefits of alternative actions that might be taken to combat climate change.

    Assuming that climate change could be accurately forecast, it would be necessary to forecast the costs and benefits of actions taken to reduce harmful effects, and to compare the net benefit with other feasible policies including taking no action.

    Here again we have been unable to find any scientific forecasts despite our appeals for such studies.

  6. To justify using a climate forecasting model, one would need to test it against a relevant naïve model.

    We used the Forecasting Method Selection Tree to help determine which method is most appropriate for forecasting long-term climate change. A copy of the Tree is attached as Appendix 1.

    It is drawn from comparative empirical studies from all areas of forecasting.

    It suggests that extrapolation is appropriate, and we chose a naïve (no change) model as an appropriate benchmark.

    A forecasting model should not be used unless it can be shown to provide forecasts that are more accurate than those from this naïve model, as it would otherwise increase error.

    In Green, Armstrong and Soon (2008), we show that the mean absolute error of 108 naïve forecasts for 50 years in the future was 0.24°C.

  7. The climate system is stable.

    To assess stability, we examined the errors from naïve forecasts for up to 100 years into the future.

    Using the U.K. Met Office Hadley Centre's data, we started with 1850 and used that year's average temperature as our forecast for the next 100 years.

    We then calculated the errors for each forecast horizon from 1 to 100.

    We repeated the process using the average temperature in 1851 as our naïve forecast for the next 100 years, and so on.

    This "successive updating" continued until year 2006, when we forecasted a single year ahead.

    This provided 157 one-year-ahead forecasts, 156 two-year-ahead and so on to 58 100-year-ahead forecasts.

    We then examined how many forecasts were further than 0.5°C from the observed value.

    Fewer than 13% of forecasts of up to 65-years-ahead had absolute errors larger than 0.5°C.

    For longer horizons, fewer than 33% had absolute errors larger than 0.5°C.

    Given the remarkable stability of global mean temperature, it is unlikely that there would be any practical benefits from a forecasting method that provided more accurate forecasts.

  8. Be conservative and avoid the precautionary principle.

    One of the primary scientific principles in forecasting is to be conservative in the darkness of uncertainty. This principle also argues for the use of the naive no-change extrapolation. Some have argued for the precautionary principle as a way to be conservative. It is a political, not a scientific principle.

    As we explain in our essay in Appendix 2, it is actually an anti-scientific principle in that it attempts to make decisions without using rational analyses. Instead, cost/benefit analyses are appropriate given the available evidence which suggests that temperature is just as likely to go up as down.

    However, these analyses should be supported by scientific forecasts.

    The reach of these models is extraordinary, for example, the CSIRO models are currently being used in Australia to determine water allocations for farmers and to justify the need for an Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) - the most far-reaching of possible economic interventions.

    Yet, according to Dr Armstrong, these same models violate 72 scientific principles.